Introduction to Getting Green

Welcome to the Getting Green blog!

My name is Zac Maurer, and I will be posting a couple times a week in regards to how I view the economy and the various implications to why I believe things are the way they are today. First off, allow me to tell you a little bit about myself. I am a 20 year old college student and I will be attending the University of Georgia in this upcoming spring semester as a double major in Mathematics and Finance.

I must also add that this blog will be very unlike to what you may see on CNBC. My views will generally be contrarian to popular consensus, as I view the herd-mentality as not only a trade opportunity like we saw back in Q1 2020, but also the main catalyst for asset-pricing bubbles such as the one we have just recently experienced.

The views expressed on this blog are not to be taken as investment advice, as they are the views of strictly my own.

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A Potential Short-Sell Opportunity

In my previous post, the S&P 500 was at all-time-highs before dropping to almost -1.5% intraday as of this post. I highlighted how market participants, particularly those with superior information, were positioning for a moderate pullback in the short term. This post will explain the potential opportunity resulting from this pullback. Market Breadth I would first like to mention a simple, yet power multi-factor model that incorporates price, volume, and volatility. As of today's close, the SPY's (an ETF that tracks the S&P 500 index) volume on today's poor performance (SPY rebounded from nearly -1.4% to -0.62%) accelerated against its previous trading day, 5 day volume average, 15 day volume average, 30 day volume average, as well as the 90 day volume average by +47.72%, +50.32%, +44.40%, +30.14%, and +29.69%, respectively, with the VIX index climbing by +6.39% to 19.48. This is what you do not want to see as a bullish investor with respect to volume by market part

One Last Ride

Since my previous post, the S&P 500 has appreciated +3.19% to $4,535.43, with the VIX and VVIX depreciating by -10.03% and -9.21% to 16.41 and 105.48, respectively. My last callout only truly referenced how participants were pricing butterfly securities, implied correlation, and general futures and options positioning in terms of notional contracts. Even then, it was apparent a decent portion of the market (particularly on the ES side) was extremely bearish, with the vast majority being bullish (as evidenced by a lower VIX/VVIX/vol contract positing, etc.). From peak to trough of the S&P500's worst week in several months, on 8/13/2021 to 8/19/2021, the VIX appreciated by over 40% from 15.45 to 21.67, the SPX falling -1.39% from 4468 to 4405.80, and the VVIX appreciating by over 10% from 117.81 to 130.41. As was stated in the previous post, the primary risk factor to be considered was an overreaction in implied volatility, which was clearly seen in this time frame. One more

The Show Goes On

In an effort to make more consistent posts for this blog, I am going to be posting once per month, at the end of every month. Since my previous post in which I recommended a hedge on the S&P 500, the S&P 500 index has appreciated by +2.83%, with the VVIX and VIX indexes both appreciating by +6.85% and +11.81%, respectively. Since the sudden decline of July 19th, the SPX has risen +3.77%, with the VVIX, VIX, and SVXY (short implied volatility fund, mid-term exposure to VIX curve) -18.27%, -21.33%, and +8.06%, respectively. From July 14-19, the SPX declined -2.65%, with the VVIX, VIX, and SVXY +18.60%, +37.78%, and -9.71%, respectively. One thing I will continue to reiterate is that I am not "bragging" on my "market call-outs", as I believe I do not make those predictions. I am simply summing up the market action during which I analyzed for, and how accurate my expectation for future volatility was. One important clarification: simply because I recommended a h

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